Will Transaction Activity Accelerate in 2021?

 

  • Prospects for a strong rebound in investment activity in 2021 are positive
  • There is tremendous capital on the sidelines in the form of consumer savings and money market funds
  • With the election behind us and the vaccination roll out in progress, uncertainty will likely abate in the new year
  • As a result, this unprecedented wave of pent-up demand could be released into the marketplace
  • The re-engaging of this capital will support commercial real estate and the broader economic recovery

 

Metrics Point to a Positive 2021 Outlook

  • CRE transactions in 4Q 2020 are estimated to be significantly above the level of the 2Q 2020 trough
  • The ongoing vaccine rollout and recently passed $900 billion fiscal stimulus will boost this momentum

Fiscal Stimulus Key to Sustain Economy and Real Estate

  • The new stimulus includes a $284B infusion to the PPP, giving small business forgivable loans for re-hiring staff
  • Additionally, $600 in stimulus checks and $300 enhanced unemployment will bolster spending and rent collections
  • The new stimulus and health solution will also work to help alleviate investor uncertainty

As Uncertainty Abates, Investment Activity Will Rise

  • Reduced uncertainty could unlock the approximate $5T in Money Market Funds and $16T in saving deposits
  • Capital will initially flow to properties like Apartments, Single-Tenant Retail, Self-Storage, and Industrial
  • Urban Office, business-catering Hotels, and properties in vacation markets will take longer to reap these benefits

Over $2.5 Trillion in Savings Waiting on the Sidelines

* Through December 23
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System