2023 Cap Rate Survey

The H2 2023 Cap Rate Survey (CRS) by CBRE indicates tighter lending standards and distress expected, but yields could be nearing their peak.

Digging into the data: Collected from over 250 industry professionals, this dataset of 3,600 cap rate estimates across more than 50 U.S. markets offers a critical look at investor sentiment during a period marked by investment caution and pricing dislocation. H2 2023 saw cap rates rise from 6.4% to 7%, propelled by bond market fluctuations with yields peaking at 5% then retracting to below 4%, indicating widespread cap rate growth across property sectors.

Zoom in: Stabilized cap rate estimates for properties in 2H23 show expansion, especially in commodity office assets. Class C urban properties saw a notable increase of over 100 bps, while suburban yields generally rose by less than 50 bps. Multifamily and neighborhood retail pricing remained relatively stable.

➥ THE TAKEAWAY

Expectations and projections: Survey respondents across property types largely expect no significant change in cap rates over the next six months. In the office sector, a higher share predicts further devaluations due to uncertainty. Expectations for cap rate increases in 1H24 decreased, possibly reflecting a more accommodative Fed policy and declining bond yields.